Climate Strategy in Uncertain Times: How Boards Can Lead with Resilience

Executive Insight Lunch – September 16, 2025 | De Warande, Brussels

We are living in an age of structural uncertainty. From geopolitical instability and economic shocks to technological disruption and accelerating climate risks, the pace and complexity of change are challenging traditional governance models. For companies, and particularly their boards, the question is not whether to act, but how to lead amid uncertainty.

During an exclusive Executive Insight Lunch co-hosted by Chapter Zero Brussels and Arthur D. Little, three key strategies emerged for future-proofing board-level decision-making: scenario planning, hybrid strategies, and ecosystem collaboration.

1. Uncertainty Is the New Normal

According to Arthur D. Little’s analysis, global uncertainty has risen steadily over the past decade, peaking in 2025. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and inflation shocks have amplified systemic volatility. At the same time, technological acceleration driven by AI and clean tech, is reshaping entire industries at unprecedented speed.

Climate change adds a layer of compounding stress. The projected economic cost of inaction by 2050 exceeds $12.5 trillion, while the estimated human toll through floods, droughts, heatwaves and more, is expected to surpass annual global cancer deaths.

2. Think in Scenarios, Not Predictions

As volatility increases, more organizations, including central banks, are shifting away from single-point forecasts toward scenario-based planning.

For boards, scenario planning is more than a risk tool. It provides a common language to align leadership, define ‘no-regret’ moves, evaluate capital allocation, and ensure strategic flexibility. It also allows organizations to act earlier and smarter in the face of uncertainty.

3. Hybrid Strategy: Global Guardrails, Local Relevance

ESG regulation and stakeholder expectations are diverging globally. While some markets demand bold climate leadership, others prioritize affordability or resist perceived overreach. A hybrid strategy anchored in a global ambition but adapted regionally, enables organizations to maintain consistency while staying relevant locally.

Boards have a critical role in overseeing this balance: setting long-term goals, ensuring credibility across markets, and aligning with shareholder expectations, whether impact-driven or return-focused.

4. Ecosystem Thinking: Collaborate to Compete

Climate challenges are systemic. No single company can drive the transition alone. That’s why leading organizations are turning to ecosystem strategies building partnerships across industries, governments, and civil society to scale impact and share risk.

Success stories include Neste, which secured scarce feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel through strategic collaborations, and Microsoft, which unlocked grid access and regulatory support for its sustainable data centers by co-creating value with local stakeholders.

Boards that understand and support ecosystem engagement position their organizations to lead markets, not just follow trends.

5. Don’t Wait for Certainty — Act for Resilience

The clear takeaway from this session: resilience is a choice. Boards that prepare through scenarios, adapt through hybrid strategies, and collaborate through ecosystems are better equipped to navigate turbulence, and unlock opportunities, in an uncertain world.

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About Chapter Zero Brussels

Chapter Zero Brussels empowers non-executive directors and board members to take climate leadership at board level. Through insights, peer exchange and governance-focused tools, we support climate-conscious decision-making at the top of the organization.

Want to explore how your board can lead on climate in times of uncertainty? Get in touch at info@chapterzerobrussels.be or visit www.chapterzerobrussels.be.