Charting Belgium's Path to Net Zero: Key Insights from Bain and the Helios Foundation

A recent study by Bain & Company, supported by the Helios Foundation, offers a comprehensive roadmap for how Belgium can realistically meet its 2050 net-zero emissions target. The analysis not only outlines the scale of the challenge but also identifies concrete investment opportunities across sectors to accelerate decarbonisation.

A Slow Descent from 140 to Zero

Belgium’s CO₂ emissions currently stand at 111 megatonnes (Mt), a reduction from a peak of 140 Mt. Yet to reach net zero by 2050, the country must reduce emissions at a sustained pace of 5 Mt per year—more than double the current average of just 2 Mt annually. Importantly, the study emphasizes that long-term impact depends more on cumulative reductions over time than on annual figures in isolation. Delaying action compounds the burden in future years.

Where the Big Wins Lie

Bain’s research identifies 34 key investment themes across sectors such as power, buildings, agriculture, and chemicals. The most significant opportunities lie in electrifying end uses and building out a clean power grid. Electrification alone could deliver up to a 30% reduction in CO₂, while a decarbonised energy grid could account for another 25%. These two levers are critical in laying the foundation for further emissions cuts across the economy.

Rethinking Energy: Decentralisation and Smart Technologies

In the power sector, simply installing solar panels is not enough. Their impact is multiplied when integrated with battery storage and smart home energy systems that help manage peak electricity demand more efficiently. Technologies such as smart EV chargers, which only operate when renewable energy is available, are a promising example of how to optimise existing infrastructure.

Access to clean technology remains a challenge for many households and businesses, but solutions are emerging. Interest-free loans and leasing schemes, particularly when supported by philanthropic foundations willing to allocate part of their margins, can help bridge the affordability gap. Decentralised energy systems and mini-grids at the industrial level are also becoming viable, offering resilience and efficiency in tandem. That said, the variability of solar and wind energy still demands major improvements in battery technology to ensure reliable supply.

Tackling Belgium’s Buildings: Insulation, Heating, and Policy Reform

The building sector accounts for 22 Mt of CO₂ emissions, with much of that linked to poor energy efficiency. Belgium has the oldest housing stock in the EU, which makes retrofitting both a priority and a challenge. Heat pumps, while promising, have been met with public scepticism, mainly due to a tax imbalance that keeps gas relatively cheap and electricity costly. Until these structural barriers are addressed, uptake will remain slow.

Beyond individual homes, large-scale investment in district heating networks could bring significant efficiency gains. With the right support and coordination, the building sector could cut an additional 15 Mt of emissions by 2030.

Agriculture: Bridging Tradition and Innovation

Agriculture contributes 12 Mt of Belgium’s annual emissions, 10 Mt of which stem from livestock. Reducing this footprint requires a shift toward regenerative agriculture practices that use less fertiliser and nitrogen. However, these changes often result in lower yields for the first few years, creating a revenue gap for farmers. Targeted financial tools such as interest-free transition loans could make this switch viable.

Technological innovation also plays a role. For example, companies like Dutch-based DSM are developing advanced animal feeds designed to reduce methane emissions without compromising productivity.

Water Systems: Cleaner, but New Challenges Ahead

Belgium’s water sector has made strides in reducing electricity consumption, but emerging contaminants like PFAS are introducing new complications. Removing these substances requires advanced filtration systems that are energy-intensive, reversing some of the previous efficiency gains. This illustrates the delicate balance between environmental safety and emissions control.

Policy Lag and the Role of Civil Society

While the European Union mandates that member states report detailed CO₂ reduction strategies under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), Belgium’s federal government has been slow to act. The lack of coordination between federal and regional authorities continues to stall progress. In this policy vacuum, non-profit organisations and foundations are stepping in to fill the gap, often funding projects that governments have been slow to support.

AI, Fintech, and the Energy Footprint of Innovation

Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence have the potential to dramatically improve emissions monitoring and management. However, they also consume vast amounts of energy. The need to constantly cool servers and data centres is becoming a CO₂ issue of its own. Promising developments in liquid cooling systems could mitigate this impact, making data infrastructure more sustainable.

Fintech companies are also beginning to explore ways to internally capture and reuse their own emissions, an example of how innovation can serve both commercial and environmental goals.

Hydrogen: A Case-by-Case Future

Finally, while hydrogen often features in discussions about the future of clean energy, the study suggests that its current efficiency limits make it a poor fit for residential heating or everyday transportation in Belgium. That said, hydrogen may still have a strategic role to play in industrial applications such as fertiliser production, where concentrated energy use justifies its deployment.

Conclusion

Belgium’s journey to net zero is complex, but it is navigable. What’s needed now is a combination of accelerated investment, smart policy reform, and deep collaboration across sectors. The study from Bain and Helios Foundation makes one thing clear: we already have many of the tools and technologies we need. The real question is whether we have the will, and the coordination, to deploy them at the scale and speed required.

With thanks to Daniel Verbruggen for the insights.