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2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)

The 14th Emissions Gap Report has been released. You can read the full report here.

The key messages included in this years report include:

Key Messages:

- World heading for a 2.5-2.9°C temperature rise unless stronger action taken.

- Predicted 2030 emissions must be cut by 28-42% for Paris Agreement goals.

- Strengthening mitigation this decade crucial for achieving Paris Agreement goals.

Alarming Emissions and Temperature Records:

- Record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events globally.

- Global GHG emissions reached a new high of 57.4 GtCO2e in 2022.

- Inequality persists in emissions distribution within and between countries.

Insufficient Mitigation Efforts and Future Projections:

- Current policies limit global warming to 3°C this century.

- Net-zero pledges not credible; 1.5°C goal only 14% likely in the most optimistic scenario.

- Need to cut 2030 emissions by 28% for 2°C goal and 42% for 1.5°C goal.

Progress Since Paris Agreement and Implementation Gap:

- Implementation progress reduces the global implementation gap.

- Nine countries submitted new NDCs; global gap estimated at 1.5 GtCO2e for unconditional NDCs.

- Ramping up implementation this decade crucial for limiting global warming.

Accelerating Low-Carbon Development:

- High-income countries must take rapid, ambitious action and support low-income nations.

- Low- and middle-income countries contribute to emissions but can benefit from low-carbon transitions.

- Extracted fossil fuels exceed carbon budget; transition opportunities for developing nations.

Global Stocktake at COP28 and Future Ambition:

- First Global Stocktake at COP28 informs NDCs for 2025 and targets for 2035.

- Action this decade crucial for achieving long-term temperature goals.

- Global ambition in next NDCs must align with below 2°C and 1.5°C pathways.

Future Reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal:

- Immediate and deep emission cuts required along with carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

- CDR currently includes afforestation, reforestation, and forest management.

- Upscaling CDR requires addressing technical, economic, and political challenges.

- Political action needed: setting CDR priorities, robust monitoring, and accelerating innovation.

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